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Iran, Venezuela, and China. Oh my! by David G. Guerra, MBA & US Army Veteran (Infantry)

Iran, Venezuela, and China. Oh my!

Are the days of the Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) a thing of the past? For those that don’t know or forgot a “low-intensity conflict is a military conflict, usually localized, between two or more state or non-state groups which is below the intensity of conventional war.”1

The fall of the Berlin Wall and the eventual reunification of Germany, the Cold War came to an end. The mainstream thinking of “Mutually Assured Destruction” also “magically” came to an end. It was quickly replaced with the next great thing in war: Low Intensity Conflict. For a while there, the US military adjusted accordingly due to the lack of needing such a huge operational force thus base closures and realignments became necessary. Downsizing and withdrawing troops from “Cold War” forward positions became the accepted standard. Then came the internal breakup of several former Warsaw Pact states.

Czechoslovakia, quietly and peacefully became the Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Sadly, that was not the case with Yugoslavia which when broken up (1992) the minor players in the nation, that brought the west the Yugo automobile, became poster children for Crimes against Humanity with their acting on ethnic cleansing with impunity. US and UN forces intervened and while things still look good in that tiny corner of the world, the UNITED NATIONS INTERIM ADMINISTRATION MISSION IN KOSOVO2 remains which has been there since June 1999.

Then fast forward to the famine in Somalia, here was a great opportunity for the “United Nations” to get together and do something good on a scale not seen for quite some time in recent history. Well that went to bust when under the direction of the local Militia Warlords, Mogadishu quickly deteriorated into the wild west, it was every man (woman and child) for himself, when the famous October 3-4, 1993 “Black Hawk Down” situation in Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital.

Small incursions throughout the globe quickly escalated after 9/11 here in the United States. However, nothing on a large scale has stuck. That is until the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea became a point of contention and enter new players.

The Spratly Islands are a small chain of islands located in the South China Ocean almost exactly between China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei and Vietnam and claimed by all of them. China has stationed military forces on the islands and conducts training exercises. However, because of the geographical importance of the location of the islands to shipping lane and the possibility of sitting on top of large OIL fields the area is now more of an international interest than just to the players in the local area. The growth of trade restrictions, tariffs and possible intellectual property theft a dangerous game of cat and mouse is just one misunderstanding away in that part of the world.

Nuclear deals and misdeals, state sponsored terrorism, and religious fanaticism is leading the drive to possible confrontation between the US and Iran. With the region mostly stabilized and isolated incidents of terror remain, the forces in the area are prepared to deal with Iranian Qud Forces and those backed by those in the force designed to conduct “unconventional warfare and intelligence activities and responsible for extraterritorial operations”. However, on a conventional scale operation, both sides have limited forces that can immediately project a sizable defense, let alone a considerable offense. This is why the calling any action a “low intensity conflict” is moot.

In Venezuela, the failure of the socialist or communist government or whatever you want to call them is reaching its inevitable conclusion; the fall from power of Nicolas Maduro and the installing of Juan Guaido as the rightfully elected leader. However, as long as Maduro remains in power and as the leader of the military, there will be no low intensity conflict in Venezuela as the drive of those in power, those wanting the power and the civilians who have already shown they are prepared to take up arms in order to defend those in office or support the installation of a new leader. The peaceful transition of power will mean very little to those that are grasping at the last threads of hope to remain in power. Nicolae Ceaușescu, Saddam Hussain, and Muammar al-Gaddafi come to mind as those that history has shown who refused to step down and step away before it was too late.

Now facing an impending but true humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, any military action taken by outside forces against the Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (FANB) will involve conventional and unconventional operations. Conventional in that military force on military force will be the expectation however, the active involvement of civilian forces will be unconventional but prove to be not prudent for those civilians that will find themselves facing unknown and known opposing forces.

Using unconventional and special forces, as doctrine dictates, to prepare the civilians for any coming use of force must be applied with undue restriction and immediate as when the bullets start flying, sadly the local population will be the first to suffer as either the pawns (human shields) of a losing regime or as unexpected collateral damage because of their involvement in and proximity to the area of operations. The Low Intensity Conflict or Conventional Warfare no matter how hi-tech and high precision will never yield a non-combatant free theater of operations. All wars to date have always had civilian casualties.

These casualties have done one of two things and both hasten the end of any conflict. The casualties are, as mentioned, used as pawns to propagandize in that the “attacker” has no regard for human life, especially, innocent civilians. The other is the “attacker” shows how the regime in question continues to do what it can to stay in power, even place innocent civilians in harm’s way.

Conflicts, Civilians, Combatants are all the same. It is the size of the belligerents, the civilians, and the landscape that varies and that variation is the force multiplier or divider. Thus, the focus of large-scale military action is inevitable and unfortunate. Unfortunate, in that a plan to increase friendly forces numbers is something that may exist in an untested & unimplemented plan. At least, to the unknown to the public.

When the need arises to implement such plan, the resistance to the “call up” will lead to another inevitability; few will show to play. Then what happens? While the US military’s mission is to win wars, how can it win wars when no one wants to fight?

Looking to the future (both near and far), the need to address the potential execution of a “call up” (a.k.a. draft) will need to begin with a bit more than just a “Be All You Can Be” social media campaign. The success of a draft, if executed, will be one that will have to be won long before the first lottery number is selected. This will not be easy to do. As the buy-in might not be something as simple as waving “the flag” in the face of Americans. Those that do buy-in, may not be enough to make the leap from LIC to Conventional Warfare.

The alternate to win a Conventional War, may already be out of reach because of the buy-in needed because it may be too late to wave the flag and most definitely too late to say “Let’s Get ‘er Done”. Therefore, the only way left to do is to amplify the strategy we have used in the LICs and while fighting to win may not be out of reach. Fighting to curtail any advancement or Fighting to stalemate is most certainly better than the alternative; executing the Nuclear Option.

As a player during the Cold War, served at the tip of the spear in West Berlin, my Army bunk was well within Soviet mortar range. When it comes to Mutually Assured Destruction by implementing the Nuclear Option, I wholeheartedly agree with the W.O.P.R. computer said in the 1983 motion “War Games”: “A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

Whether it is another Low Intensity Conflict or the move to large-scale Conventional Warfare it seems that those who are prepared to fight on their turf and on their rules will be the winners. Not boding well for the one side that “never loses” the option to winning is not an option, yet it will remain on the table for any of the belligerents in the next great conflict. Will that be enough to make any action taken brief, regionalized and quick to recover? We can only hope.

No matter what happens, we are now well into the 21st Century and the days of the original NATO members, Warsaw Pact, Coalition Forces, and United Nations Peacekeeping forces are become a thing of the past and not viable deterrents to any type of possible military action in the South China Sea, Venezuela, or Persian Gulf. Even the Berlin Wall and the memory of what it originally stood for is quickly starting to fade and manipulated to suit modern day politics. For those that are not sure, the BERLIN WALL was BUILT TO KEEP EAST GERMANS IN EAST GERMANY! The East German had orders to SHOOT TO KILL those that attempted to cross the barriers.

Time has certainly changed. Time will continue to change and so will the face of modern warfare change. We also, have no choice but to change with the time.

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David G. Guerra, MBA
email: [email protected]
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An Observation on Truth

an observation on truth by david g guerra

Sunday, December 2, 2018: Out for a quick jog early this cool, crisp morning just the Moon, Venus, and Me. The sun was still below the horizon. For the moments we three were together, we were the only things that existed. Then it hit me: Reality. We are all that exists. What we see, what we feel, what we know is all that is real and what we believe.

At an early age we are taught to believe in certain things and shun others. But do not ask why (it just is). However, we are taught not to follow our friends off the bridge of their choosing, yet we are damned to eternal strife if we do not believe wine is blood and follow the line to the altar for a taste. The former MUST always be questioned while the latter must NEVER be questioned. WHY? Yet, the bridge and the blood are BOTH very much the same thing. WHY? Another never to ask is does he exist. Oh never question that. WHY?

Back to the reality of the moment, lately I find myself questioning what is real and what is not? What is here in this moment? Who lives and who does not? Questions and Questions and more Questions. Yet, not enough answers. The reality is there are NEVER enough answers. Maybe there is never enough time for the answers? Maybe I do not have enough time to get the answers? Then again none of us have time left for the answers.

Time or not enough time left I have to keep asking questions whether I get a truthful answer or a passing deflection it does not matter. What matters is to continually question everything. Why question everything? I do not really know why but I do know it has to do with remaining uncomfortable. As I looked up and stared at the crescent Moon and the planet Venus, all a blaze, the cool morning air made the sweat on my skin colder and another realization befell onto me: Truth is I cannot stop thinking about you. Why?


David G. Guerra, MBA
Veteran, Author, Trainer, Knowledge Sharer

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About Me article blog Change Current Events Inspiration Leadership Mentor Motivation Walking Leader

Liking Irrelevance Less

One of my all-time favorite quotes, it is not my top all-time favorite quote but it’s up there with about three others. I like this quote a lot because it is refers to the one thing that I talk about. I mean I harp on it. I beat it down and try to cram it down people’s throat. I do now once you cram stuff down people’s throat you cannot make them accept it but I do hope it at least gets people thinking. If I don’t get them thinking, I hope to at least raise an eyebrow or two. That quote is by General Eric Shinseki, former Chief of Staff United States Army:

If you don’t like change you’re going to like irrelevance even less.

 
“If you don’t like change you’re going to like irrelevance even less.” I think that about sums it up as General Shinseki says change is going to happen. You have got to either embrace it or accept the fact that it (change) is here. It is coming, it is going to happen and if you don’t change, guess what? That’s right you are going to fall by the wayside. You are going to be sent to the side of the road. You are going to be one of those people that sits there and watches the parade go by and then wonder what happened. That is the truth. That’s your destiny. It does not get any truer than that. You are going to become irrelevant. Change is coming and I’m seeing it all over the place. I am seeing it everywhere. Now more so than ever and it’s technology is doing that technology is driving that change.
 
What do we do? Well, we can sit here and put our head in the sand and expect that it’s not going to happen to us. I guarantee you it’s going to happen to us. It is going to happen. Every industry is going to be impacted by change and if you do not believe me you have got your head in the sand.
 
Look at look at what Netflix and Amazon Prime did to Blockbuster. Look at what happened. Where is Blockbuster now? They are gone.
 
A huge company, a huge organization and now they’re gone. They are gone because they refused to change. They refused to adapt. They had a chance to buy Netflix. They had a chance to buy out Netflix and they chose not to. Now, Blockbuster Video is gone and folks, it is going to happen across a lot of other industries.
 
It is already happening, now in the food service industry specifically the pizza industry. I saw this commercial earlier this week for the Little Caesars pick up portal. You can order online on your Little Caesars app on your phone and you can pay online. Through the app on the phone, you enter your credit card information or your debit card information. Then you just show up at the store because they don’t deliver. You show up at the store and you go to the portal. You find your little number then you enter the code, the little door will open, that applies to you, and it’s just that simple and you take your pizzas, you leave. You never have to talk to a human being. That is right, you never have to talk to a human being.
 
AirBnB, look what it is doing to the hospitality industry. Rocket Mortgage; look what it is doing to the home lending industry. Realtor dot com app where you can search by drawing a little circle or draw a pattern that shows you all the homes in that search area. That is going to continue rock the industry. That app and others like it are going to change the real estate business. It does not care what anybody says, the real estate business needs to change. It is going to happen because it is happening already. If somebody is sitting out there not believing that it is not going to happen or think that people will not do that, people won’t allow that. Yet, look at what happened to the horse-drawn carriage, that’s right the automobile industry took care of that.
 
Now look at what is happening to the driving industry. We are getting driverless vehicles, the consumer will no longer be driving their own vehicles. Sure there might be somebody driving a vehicle but the consumer themselves will not be driving the vehicle. Look at Lyft, at Uber, it is happening.
 
To continue living a life and a mindset of “oh, it’s not going to happen to my industry” is nonsense. Guess what is going to happen to the pharmaceutical industry, the pharmaceutical business, those pharmacies at Walmart, Walgreens, CVS, Target? The Pharmacy business is going to combine a little AirBnB, a little Rocket Mortgage, and a little Little Caesars. That’s right, what is going to happen, I do not know if you have seen them but there are these little robots that make mixed drinks. In Japan and in the larger cities like Las Vegas in some hotels, they have robots that mix drinks because they know exactly where the vodka is, their mechanical arm goes and pulls it. It knows exactly how much to pour to get two shots of vodka. It knows how to shake, stir whatever you need. It knows how to drop the cherry or the olives into the martini and present it to you.
 
Guess what is going to happen because it is happening now. It has already happened and it’s going to continue to happen. This coming change is going to rock the pharmacy business and it’s going to rock that industry on its heels.
 
Folks, while it is quite simple, the problem remains. There are people out there that refuse to accept the fact that it is going to change. While there is always going to be a need for a human. There will always be a need for human but a human to ensure that the machine is still up and running. To ensure that the machine is still doing what it’s supposed to do. Yes, there is going to be a continued need for a human, for the time being. Humans but eventually, we will all putting ourselves out of business, out of a job. Technology is and will be putting everyone else out of business.
 
Thus, you need to adapt, you need to change, you need to plan and you need to act on that plan. If you do not, I sure do hope you like irrelevance. Relevance and Change is coming and it is going to shape the future. Either you are relevant or you are not relevant and that is all there is to it. It does not matter what you do. It is going to happen and again, it is changing all around you and if you are not seeing the forest for the trees then you get exactly what you deserve.
 
What are you doing to go with that change that is coming to stay? To remain relevant as opposed to becoming irrelevant? The time to act is now because before you know it, you are going to watch that parade go by and you won’t know what happened.
 
Personally, I’d much rather be in the parade but then again, that’s just me.